According to @simplykashif, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike is not the base case right now and he is not hearing that view from anyone on the committee, source: @simplykashif on X (Dec 11, 2025). This guidance points to a pause bias versus additional tightening, reducing the immediate perceived probability of further rate hikes used by traders in macro-sensitive strategies, source: @simplykashif. For crypto markets, the removal of a near-term hike as the base case can affect positioning and volatility in BTC and ETH as desks recalibrate Fed path assumptions, source: @simplykashif.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the red flag on inflation indicates a potential rate hike if inflation continues to rise, affecting cryptocurrency market dynamics.

According to Greeks.live, the Bank of Japan's rate hike of 25 bps was anticipated, resulting in no significant market reaction. Bitcoin's implied volatilities (IVs) remain around 60%. The short-term volatility risk premium has decreased from +20% at the time of Trump's inauguration to -10% currently. This week saw a slight increase in actual market volatility, contrary to expectations, leading to a decline in short-term IV and a significant drop in the volatility risk premium. The market has lowered expectations for the remainder of the month, although some whales are accumulating short-term call options.

According to @GreeksLive, there is an expectation of a potential 25 basis points rate hike in September. This could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market, as changes in interest rates often influence investor behavior and market liquidity.